New channel: calculate incrementality after transfer and dependency.
Answer:
A new channel creates value only when it adds genuinely additional demand or service quality after commission, returns, operating costs, transfer from existing channels and contractual dependency. Gross revenue measures neither incrementality nor contribution.
Method and decision:
State the zones, queries, segments or occasions the channel is meant to add; this is the promise to test. Value new sales, subtract contribution lost through transfers and add all variable and fixed costs triggered by the channel. Sample ordinary products, zones and periods, rather than only the best references. Make each expansion conditional on contribution, new-demand, service-quality and concentration thresholds. Test, then extend only when net contribution, new demand and exit capacity remain favourable on representative units.
Worked example:
A marketplace forecasts €1.4m sales, 30% transferred from direct web. Product margin on truly additional revenue is 45%; an 18% commission applies to all sales; returns and service cost €72,000 and amortised integration costs €60,000. Additional revenue is €1.4m × 70% = €980,000. Product margin is €441,000. Commission is €252,000. After €72,000 service and €60,000 fixed costs, net contribution equals €57,000. The channel does not yet justify a national rollout. A pilot must confirm the transfer rate, reduce returns and verify that new demand exceeds 70% of sales.
Limits:
Customers can discover through one channel and buy through another, complicating transfer estimation. Coverage and awareness effects may occur after the pilot horizon. Commercial terms can change with volume, making a small test unrepresentative.