Marketing budget allocation

Budget allocation is a comparison of the next spend slices, not a ranking of historic average ROI. A useful decision makes response assumptions, saturation, uncertainty and execution constraints visible.

Define a common economic unit

Use incremental contribution after variable costs, commissions and required capacity on a stated horizon. Do not compare platform revenue, attributed ROAS and contribution without first aligning their perimeter and counterfactual.

Compare marginal scenarios

Set minimum presence, maximum capacity, contractual commitments and any role a channel must retain. Then compare what an additional or removed spend slice changes. Read the marginal-return method before deciding where to place the next euro.

Treat uncertainty as a decision input

Use prudent as well as central returns. A high central estimate with a material downside can be less suitable than a lower but robust alternative. Record the information that could reverse the choice.

Decide, test and revise

Choose a limited, observable move, define stop and rollback conditions, and set a review date. Illustrative coefficients cannot replace curves calibrated on the organisation’s own data.