Launching an offer: passing five gates before amplifying.
Evidence status
What was reproduced, and what it does not prove.
The CSV and the Python run verify the margin, the returns correction, the cannibalisation and the payback threshold in the illustrative scenario. They do not demonstrate a net market demand.
- Technical specification of the offer launch scenario, specification in French (opens in a new tab)
v1, 31 August 2026 · CC BY 4.0 · specification in French · Method document written by marketing-mix.net. The figures are illustrative: they are not market measurements.
Key distinctions
Three conditions before calculating.
Net demand
Distinguish new buyers, reactivation, purchase brought forward and transfer from the portfolio. Pre-orders concentrated among loyal customers do not prove a wider market.
Unit economics
Net price minus variable cost, service, returns, commissions and acquisition. The volume threshold must be computed on the contribution genuinely available to absorb the launch.
Capacity before amplification
Availability, quality, support and delivery time can turn a good acquisition signal into a lasting bad experience.
Method
Orchestrating the launch as a series of options
- 01Validate the problem
Observe current behaviour, the cost of the problem and the alternatives; interest in an idea does not replace the will to change.
- 02Test price and commitment
Ask for a costly action or a payment on a controlled perimeter, with explicit conditions and refund.
- 03Measure the full economics
Track contribution, acquisition, returns, service, cannibalisation and retention on cohorts.
- 04Amplify in steps
Increase areas, channels or budget only if the thresholds stay true once the population is widened.
The five gates of the launch
Each gate authorises an additional commitment. A favourable signal does not offset the failure of an indispensable condition.
Problem
Observed behaviour
✓ clearedCommitment
Payment or real effort
✓ clearedEconomics
Positive net contribution
✓ clearedDeliverability
Quality and capacity
✓ clearedRepeatability
Broader population
to be provenAn encouraging pilot that does not yet justify the national launch
Price €79, variable cost €31, launch investment €240,000. The pilot sells 900 units in six weeks, with 25% cannibalisation and 11% returns.
Theoretical contribution per unit: €48. After returns, €42.72. The margin displaced by cannibalisation is €8.50 per sale, hence a net contribution of €34.22. The launch payback threshold is 240,000 ÷ 34.22 = 7,014 sales.
The annualised pace exceeds the threshold, but the pilot population is 68% existing customers. Extend to two cold areas before committing the national budget.
Acceptance conditions
What must be true to act.
- 01
The problem, the target and the current alternative are observed before the concept.
- 02
Contribution includes returns, service, acquisition and displaced margin.
- 03
Each step uses a wider or more representative population.
- 04
The stopping conditions and the maximum budget at risk are set before the test.
Limits
What this analysis does not prove.
- Early adopters often overestimate demand in the main market.
- A small pilot underestimates the costs of complexity and support at scale.
- Seasonality and novelty can make the first pace unsustainable.
References
Works cited.
- Thomke, S. (2020), Experimentation Works.
- Kohavi, R., Tang, D. & Xu, Y. (2020), Trustworthy Online Controlled Experiments.
- Moorthy, K. S. (1984), “Market Segmentation, Self-Selection, and Product Line Design”, Marketing Science.