Launch an offer: pass five gates before scaling.
Answer:
A launch cannot be validated by stated interest or first sales. It must demonstrate net demand, positive unit contribution, acceptable cannibalisation, delivery capacity and a reproducible acquisition method. These proofs appear at different times.
Method and decision:
Observe the current behaviour, problem cost and alternatives before the concept. Test price and commitment through a costly action or payment on a controlled scope with explicit conditions and refunds. Follow contribution, acquisition, returns, service, cannibalisation and retention by cohort. Expand zones, channels or budget only if thresholds remain true for a broader population. Commit budget in stages and cross each gate only when pre-registered economic, behavioural and operational thresholds are met.
Worked example:
Price is €79, variable cost €31 and launch investment €240,000. The pilot sells 900 units in six weeks, with 25% cannibalisation and 11% returns. Theoretical contribution per unit is €48; after returns it is €42.72. Displaced margin through cannibalisation is €8.50 per sale, giving net contribution €34.22. Break-even launch volume is 240,000 ÷ 34.22 = 7,014 sales. The annualised rate exceeds the threshold, but the pilot population is 68% existing customers. Extend to two cold areas before committing national budget.
Limits:
Early adopters often overstate main-market demand. A small pilot understates scale complexity and support costs. Seasonality and novelty can make initial pace unsustainable.