Comparing a current mix with a target mix is not scoring two ideal states.
Comparing a current mix with a target mix is not scoring two ideal states. Measure controllable gaps, their economic effect, dependencies and transition risk. A large gap is not necessarily first: increasing price before strengthening proof can destroy conversion; opening a channel before stabilising service can amplify a weakness. Sequence transformation by net value unlocked and prerequisites.
Decision and method.
Prioritise gaps that unlock the highest risk-adjusted value after dependencies, delay and reversibility. Describe current and target using the same offer, segment, channel, geography, period and indicator; support the target with economics, customer evidence or a constraint, never a competitor average. Calculate normalised gap × economic value × confidence; subtract cost, delay and disruption risk, then add genuinely unlocked dependent value. Map prerequisites, conflicts and thresholds. Create batches with entry signal, capped budget, expected evidence and exit decision; recalculate the target when learning invalidates an assumption.
Worked example.
A brand targets 90% availability, net price €104 and 60% media reach; it observes 78%, €96 and 42%. Estimated gross annual values are €520,000, €410,000 and €350,000, with confidence 80%, 60% and 70%. Risk-adjusted values are availability €416,000, price €246,000, media €245,000. Availability costs €140,000 and unlocks 35% of media value, €85,800, for total net value €361,800. Price costs €70,000 but depends on product proof not ready. Media costs €210,000 and would lose around 22% of its return at current availability. Treat availability first, product proof in parallel, then price before media expansion.
Checks and limits.
Current and target must share unit and dated evidence; justify target through value or constraint; include dependencies and unlocked value in priority; give every batch an entry gate and stop rule. Target-state value remains uncertain before experiment; normalised scores can create false comparability; a competitive change can make the target obsolete during transition.
Resources and sources.
Download the gap matrix. Related: measure coherence, formalise constraints, build the transition plan. Sources: Kaplan & Norton (2008); Keeney (1992); Cooper (2008).