{
  "metadata": {
    "title": "Repositioning decision tree",
    "status": "illustrative data",
    "unit": "EUR per year"
  },
  "current_situation": {
    "contribution": 1200000,
    "expected_erosion_pct": 0.12,
    "contribution_after_waiting": 1056000
  },
  "repositioning": {
    "fixed_cost": 350000,
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "name": "success",
        "probability": 0.45,
        "contribution": 1650000
      },
      {
        "name": "partial_success",
        "probability": 0.35,
        "contribution": 1250000
      },
      {
        "name": "failure",
        "probability": 0.2,
        "contribution": 850000
      }
    ],
    "expected_contribution": 1350000,
    "uplift_vs_waiting": 294000,
    "payback_years": 1.1905
  },
  "rule": "act if the strategic horizon exceeds 1.19 years and the evidence gates are passed"
}