{
  "dataset": {
    "name": "Noroa — omnichannel marketing mix, 156 weeks",
    "version": "1.0",
    "nature": "Simulated, deterministic and reproducible data",
    "company": "Noroa is a fictional company",
    "period": {
      "start": "2023-01-02",
      "end": "2025-12-22",
      "observations": 156,
      "grain": "week"
    },
    "allowedUse": [
      "Reproduce the decision case",
      "Test an MMM or allocation method",
      "Teach sensitivity analysis"
    ],
    "prohibitedUse": [
      "Present the results as observed market performance",
      "Use the parameters as an industry benchmark"
    ]
  },
  "decision": {
    "question": "How can €1.2m per quarter be reallocated across five channels without increasing the budget?",
    "objective": "Maximise incremental gross contribution after media",
    "decision": "Deploy the reallocation in two stages with six weeks of validation",
    "budget_eur": 1200000
  },
  "model": {
    "responseCurve": "R_i(s) = A_i * s^alpha_i / (H_i^alpha_i + s^alpha_i)",
    "allocation": "Discrete allocation in €10,000 increments within published channel constraints",
    "channels": [
      {
        "channel": "Paid search",
        "current_eur": 440000,
        "target_eur": 290000,
        "marginal_return_eur_per_eur": 0.7,
        "confidence_percent": 88
      },
      {
        "channel": "Paid social",
        "current_eur": 340000,
        "target_eur": 220000,
        "marginal_return_eur_per_eur": 0.82,
        "confidence_percent": 62
      },
      {
        "channel": "Online video",
        "current_eur": 140000,
        "target_eur": 230000,
        "marginal_return_eur_per_eur": 1.46,
        "confidence_percent": 70
      },
      {
        "channel": "Television",
        "current_eur": 200000,
        "target_eur": 270000,
        "marginal_return_eur_per_eur": 1.31,
        "confidence_percent": 66
      },
      {
        "channel": "Retail media",
        "current_eur": 80000,
        "target_eur": 190000,
        "marginal_return_eur_per_eur": 2.04,
        "confidence_percent": 80
      }
    ]
  },
  "result": {
    "current_contribution_eur": 1946408,
    "target_contribution_eur": 2067807,
    "expected_gain_eur": 121400,
    "expected_gain_percent": 6.2,
    "prudent_gain_eur": 42000,
    "favorable_gain_eur": 187000,
    "positive_gain_probability_percent": 88
  },
  "validation": {
    "estimation_weeks": 144,
    "holdout_weeks": 12,
    "holdout_mape_percent": 6.8,
    "interval_coverage_percent": 91.7
  },
  "limits": [
    "The data are simulated, not observed market performance.",
    "The curves do not estimate creative or sequential synergies.",
    "A real decision requires local costs, margins and tests."
  ]
}